Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 43% vote share, against 27% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Maxime LAISNEY

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.0%
  • RN and allies 26.7%
  • LR and allies 17.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereSeine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription 43.0%26.7%17.6%9.5%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne 31.1% +11.9 35.7% −9.0 14.6% +3.0 22.3% −12.8
National averageFrance 29.5% +13.5 36.0% −9.3 12.2% +5.3 20.6% −11.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Maxime LAISNEY Elected Left (NFP) 22,558 43.9 —
Pryscillia BRACH RN and allies 11,625 22.6 —
Stéphanie DO Centre (Ensemble) 7,445 14.5 —
Michel COLAS LR and allies 5,722 11.2 —
Joël SANGARÉ LR and allies 2,707 5.3 —
Sylvain CAYARD Far left 688 1.3 —
Philippe DERVAUX RN and allies 596 1.2 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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