Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 35% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Arnaud BONNET

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Competitive

Probability: 91%
Mean margin (pts): 3.1
P(close race): 15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 35.4%
RN and allies 32.2%
Centre (Ensemble) 27.9%
Others 2.0%
LR and allies 1.2%
Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	Others
HereSeine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription	35.4%	32.2%	27.9%	2.0%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne	31.1% +4.3	35.7% −3.5	22.3% +5.6	2.5% −0.5
National averageFrance	29.5% +5.9	36.0% −3.8	20.6% +7.3	3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+3.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Arnaud BONNET Elected	Left (NFP)	22,663	36.3	—
Hadrien GHOMI	Centre (Ensemble)	20,622	33.0	—
Manon MOURGERES	RN and allies	17,465	28.0	—
Jean-Marc MOSKOWICZ	RN and allies	869	1.4	—
Frédéric RENAULT	Far left	822	1.3	—
Henriette SAUVAGE	Sovereignists	1	0.0	—
Bernard DUCHAUSSOY	Greens	0	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next