Riding profile

Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Saint-Denis

The question

Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Saint-Denis, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 41% vote share, against 24% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Thomas PORTES

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 16.5
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 40.7%
RN and allies 24.2%
Centre (Ensemble) 16.5%
LR and allies 14.9%
Others 2.8%
Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereSeine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription	40.7%	24.2%	16.5%	14.9%
Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis	58.8% −18.1	19.9% +4.3	7.0% +9.5	11.9% +3.0
National averageFrance	29.5% +11.2	36.0% −11.8	20.6% −4.1	12.2% +2.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+16.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Thomas PORTES Elected	Left (NFP)	20,648	41.7	—
Denis CRETIN-GIELLY	RN and allies	10,539	21.3	—
Eric ALLEMON	LR and allies	5,681	11.5	—
Patrice ANATO	Centre (Ensemble)	5,521	11.2	—
Stéphanie RICHARD	Centre (Ensemble)	2,710	5.5	—
Djénéba DIABY	Centre (Ensemble)	2,452	5.0	—
Maxence BUTTEY	LR and allies	1,146	2.3	—
Maëlle GAUCHERAND	Far left	451	0.9	—
Sarah Astrid DACKO	Others	388	0.8	—
Gaspard NICOLLE	Far left	1	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next