Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julien LIMONGI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.5%
  • LR and allies 27.7%
  • Left (NFP) 19.1%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereSeine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription 49.5%27.7%19.1%1.9%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne 35.7% +13.8 14.6% +13.1 31.1% −12.0 2.5% −0.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.6 12.2% +15.5 29.5% −10.4 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julien LIMONGI Elected RN and allies 27,317 47.6 —
Isabelle PERIGAULT LR and allies 16,060 28.0 —
Mathieu GARNIER Left (NFP) 11,986 20.9 —
Jean-Yves GAUDEY Far left 1,070 1.9 —
Nicolas FAUVEAU RN and allies 907 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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