Riding profile
Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription
The question
Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 39% vote share, against 31% for the LR right, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jean-Louis THIERIOT
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 67%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.8
- P(close race)
- 66%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSeine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription | 39.0% | 31.2% | 26.2% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7% +3.3 | 14.6% +16.6 | 31.1% −4.8 | 2.5% −0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +3.0 | 12.2% +19.0 | 29.5% −3.3 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davy BRUN | RN and allies | 19,153 | 38.1 | — |
| Jean-Louis THIERIOT Elected | LR and allies | 15,914 | 31.7 | — |
| Laura VALLÉE-HANS | Left (NFP) | 14,267 | 28.4 | — |
| Catherine VAN CAUTEREN | Far left | 896 | 1.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-et-Marne — 11ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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