Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Arnaud SAINT-MARTIN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
58%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
83%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.6%
  • Left (NFP) 32.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.9%
  • Far left 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereSeine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription 37.6%32.9%24.0%2.0%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne 35.7% +1.8 31.1% +1.9 22.3% +1.7 2.5% −0.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.6 29.5% +3.4 20.6% +3.4 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Arnaud SAINT-MARTIN Elected Left (NFP) 14,701 33.3 —
Théo MICHEL RN and allies 14,542 33.0 —
Aude LUQUET Centre (Ensemble) 12,816 29.0 —
Brigitte LAPEYRONIE RN and allies 794 1.8 —
Jean-Louis GUERRIER Far left 742 1.7 —
Henri Komivi DJOLEGBEHOU LR and allies 298 0.7 —
Hicham AICHI Left (NFP) 234 0.5 —
Victoria MEIMOUNI Sovereignists 3 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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