Riding profile

Essonne — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 8ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Essonne — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the sovereignists ahead at 32% vote share, against 32% for the sovereignists, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Bérenger CERNON

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Sovereignists

Toss-up

Probability
69%
Mean margin (pts)
0.6
P(close race)
59%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 32.2%
  • Sovereignists 31.6%
  • LR and allies 27.4%
  • RN and allies 2.9%
  • Greens 2.7%
  • Others 2.5%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Sovereignists LR and allies RN and allies
HereEssonne — 8ème circonscription 32.2%31.6%27.4%2.9%
Provincial averageEssonne 37.4% −5.2 31.6% 7.3% +20.1 28.2% −25.3
National averageFrance 29.5% +2.7 1.6% +30.0 12.2% +15.2 36.0% −33.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bérenger CERNON Elected Left (NFP) 16,986 34.4 —
Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN Sovereignists 16,288 33.0 —
François DUROVRAY LR and allies 13,532 27.4 —
Amina BOUATLAOUI Greens 1,683 3.4 —
Chantal DUBOULAY Far left 432 0.9 —
Lolita DUQUENOY Others 283 0.6 —
Jean-Baptiste TAOFIFENUA Centre (Ensemble) 218 0.4 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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