Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 41% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Louis BOYARD

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 41.2%
  • RN and allies 31.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Sovereignists 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereVal-de-Marne — 3ème circonscription 41.2%31.6%21.9%2.0%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% −2.8 22.9% +8.7 19.9% +2.0 2.0%
National averageFrance 29.5% +11.7 36.0% −4.4 20.6% +1.3 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louis BOYARD Elected Left (NFP) 19,290 42.2 —
Arnaud BARBOTIN RN and allies 12,491 27.3 —
Loïc SIGNOR Centre (Ensemble) 10,871 23.8 —
Géraldine TELLE Centre (Ensemble) 870 1.9 —
Lucien NOAILE Far left 651 1.4 —
Frédérique PONCET RN and allies 650 1.4 —
Noël AGOSSA Centre (Ensemble) 602 1.3 —
Emmanuelly GOUGOUGNAN-ZADIGUE Sovereignists 315 0.7 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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