Riding profile

Essonne — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Essonne — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 37% vote share, against 33% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julie OZENNE

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
9%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 36.7%
  • RN and allies 33.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.0%
  • Others 5.5%
  • Far left 1.5%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereEssonne — 9ème circonscription 36.7%33.0%22.0%5.5%
Provincial averageEssonne 37.4% −0.7 28.2% +4.7 22.7% −0.7 5.8% −0.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +7.2 36.0% −3.0 20.6% +1.5 3.9% +1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julie OZENNE Elected Left (NFP) 19,288 37.6
Paul-Henri MERRIEN RN and allies 15,449 30.1
Marie GUÉVENOUX Centre (Ensemble) 13,908 27.1
Bruno CHAMBERLIN Others 1,652 3.2
Benoit GRISAUD Far left 831 1.6
Sinan BORAN Others 168 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
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