Riding profile

Essonne — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Essonne — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Antoine LÉAUMENT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
12.3
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 42.3%
  • RN and allies 29.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 13.9%
  • LR and allies 7.3%
  • Greens 2.9%
  • Others 2.8%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereEssonne — 10ème circonscription 42.3%29.9%13.9%7.3%
Provincial averageEssonne 37.4% +4.9 28.2% +1.7 22.7% −8.8 7.3%
National averageFrance 29.5% +12.8 36.0% −6.0 20.6% −6.6 12.2% −4.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Antoine LÉAUMENT Elected Left (NFP) 16,242 43.0 —
Michael AMAND RN and allies 9,784 25.9 —
Alexandra MONET Centre (Ensemble) 7,137 18.9 —
Nicolas DE BOISHUE LR and allies 2,207 5.8 —
Thierry DENEUVE Greens 694 1.8 —
Kamel KECER Greens 622 1.6 —
Stéphanie HAMON RN and allies 373 1.0 —
Monique LECLERC Far left 317 0.8 —
Willy DECKEL Others 257 0.7 —
Joël MANDO LR and allies 70 0.2 —
Mihala KABAMA Others 60 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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