Riding profile

Essonne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Essonne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 43% vote share, against 29% for another bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Farida AMRANI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.2%
  • Others 28.5%
  • RN and allies 25.4%
  • Far left 1.2%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Others RN and allies Far left
HereEssonne — 1ère circonscription 43.2%28.5%25.4%1.2%
Provincial averageEssonne 37.4% +5.8 5.8% +22.8 28.2% −2.8 0.9% +0.3
National averageFrance 29.5% +13.7 3.9% +24.6 36.0% −10.5 1.1% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Farida AMRANI Elected Left (NFP) 19,109 46.1
Stéphane BEAUDET Others 11,506 27.7
Thiebauld VEGA RN and allies 9,264 22.3
Jean CAMONIN Far left 565 1.4
Hélène BERENGER RN and allies 539 1.3
Baptiste GALAND Greens 405 1.0
Gladys EYANG Others 87 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next