Riding profile

Marne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Marne

The question

Marne — 2ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Marne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 25% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Laure MILLER

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
14.9
P(close race)
13%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.4%
  • Left (NFP) 21.0%
  • LR and allies 8.3%
  • Greens 2.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereMarne — 2ème circonscription 40.3%25.4%21.0%8.3%
Provincial averageMarne 37.3% +3.0 28.9% −3.4 18.2% +2.8 11.4% −3.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.3 20.6% +4.9 29.5% −8.5 12.2% −3.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anne-Sophie FRIGOUT RN and allies 17,645 36.3 —
Laure MILLER Elected Centre (Ensemble) 14,756 30.4 —
Stéphane PIROUELLE Left (NFP) 10,560 21.8 —
Stéphane LANG LR and allies 3,425 7.0 —
Ghislain WYSOCINSKI Greens 1,301 2.7 —
Marie PACE RN and allies 446 0.9 —
Thomas ROSE Far left 420 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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