Riding profile

Marne — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Marne

The question

Marne — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Marne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Marne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Maxime MICHELET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.8%
  • Left (NFP) 18.0%
  • Sovereignists 2.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.4%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Sovereignists
HereMarne — 3ème circonscription 48.0%26.8%18.0%2.5%
Provincial averageMarne 37.3% +10.7 28.9% −2.1 18.2% −0.2 2.5%
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.1 20.6% +6.2 29.5% −11.5 1.6% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Maxime MICHELET Elected RN and allies 21,890 43.8
Eric GIRARDIN Centre (Ensemble) 15,942 31.9
Chantal BERTHÉLÉMY Left (NFP) 9,397 18.8
Johanna JABBOUR Sovereignists 1,219 2.4
Charlotte CORMERAIS Far left 769 1.5
Julien SENE RN and allies 719 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next