Riding profile
Aisne — 1ère circonscription
The question
Aisne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Aisne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Aisne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 59% vote share, against 18% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nicolas DRAGON
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 40.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAisne — 1ère circonscription | 58.6% | 18.2% | 17.8% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageAisne | 55.9% +2.7 | 20.8% −2.6 | 16.9% +0.9 | 2.1% +0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +22.6 | 29.5% −11.3 | 20.6% −2.8 | 3.9% −1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas DRAGON Elected | RN and allies | 24,774 | 54.5 | — |
| Damien DELAVENNE | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,380 | 22.8 | — |
| Charles CULIOLI | Left (NFP) | 8,654 | 19.0 | — |
| Jean-Loup PERNELLE | Far left | 701 | 1.5 | — |
| Philippe TRÉGUIER | RN and allies | 644 | 1.4 | — |
| Matthieu Léon BOUFFLET | Others | 316 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Aisne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 12ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next