Riding profile
Nord — 12ème circonscription
The question
Nord — 12ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Nord — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 21% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michael TAVERNE
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 34.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNord — 12ème circonscription | 56.3% | 21.4% | 19.0% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0% +14.3 | 12.7% +8.6 | 28.2% −9.1 | 3.6% −1.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +20.3 | 12.2% +9.1 | 29.5% −10.5 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael TAVERNE Elected | RN and allies | 31,567 | 54.7 | — |
| Sébastien SEGUIN | LR and allies | 12,279 | 21.3 | — |
| Bernard BAUDOUX | Left (NFP) | 11,992 | 20.8 | — |
| Isabelle PREVOST | RN and allies | 932 | 1.6 | — |
| Laurent LEHRHAUPT | Far left | 894 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nord — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 21ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 18ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 19ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 20ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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