Riding profile
Nord — 21ème circonscription
The question
Nord — 21ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Nord — 21ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 30% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Valérie LÉTARD
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.1
- P(close race)
- 7%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNord — 21ème circonscription | 45.3% | 30.2% | 21.2% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0% +3.3 | 12.7% +17.5 | 28.2% −7.0 | 3.6% −1.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +9.4 | 12.2% +18.0 | 29.5% −8.3 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence BARA | RN and allies | 21,337 | 43.6 | — |
| Valérie LÉTARD Elected | LR and allies | 14,280 | 29.2 | — |
| Pierrick COLPIN | Left (NFP) | 11,290 | 23.1 | — |
| Édith DUQUESNOY | Far left | 726 | 1.5 | — |
| Laurent LASSELIN | LR and allies | 709 | 1.4 | — |
| Séverine DUMINY | RN and allies | 580 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nord — 20ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 19ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 12ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 18ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 16ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next