Riding profile

Nord — 20ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 20ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Nord — 20ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Guillaume FLORQUIN

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 53.0%
  • Left (NFP) 30.3%
  • LR and allies 7.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 5.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereNord — 20ème circonscription 53.0%30.3%7.7%5.6%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% +11.0 28.2% +2.1 12.7% −5.0 19.0% −13.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +17.1 29.5% +0.8 12.2% −4.5 20.6% −15.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Guillaume FLORQUIN Elected RN and allies 23,852 50.3
Fabien ROUSSEL Left (NFP) 14,791 31.2
Pierre-Luc VERVANDIER Centre (Ensemble) 5,010 10.6
Élisabeth GONDY LR and allies 3,087 6.5
Dimitri MOZDZIERZ Far left 679 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next