Riding profile

Aisne — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Aisne

The question

Aisne — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Aisne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aisne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 58% vote share, against 35% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eddy CASTERMAN

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 57.5%
  • Left (NFP) 35.0%
  • Sovereignists 2.8%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Sovereignists Others
HereAisne — 3ème circonscription 57.5%35.0%2.8%1.9%
Provincial averageAisne 55.9% +1.6 20.8% +14.2 2.8% 2.1% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +21.6 29.5% +5.5 1.6% +1.1 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eddy CASTERMAN Elected RN and allies 23,577 57.6
Jean-Louis BRICOUT Left (NFP) 15,385 37.6
Damien CRÉON Sovereignists 1,165 2.9
Laetitia VOISIN Far left 763 1.9
Anne-Marie FOURNIER RN and allies 11 0.0
Last model run
Cycle
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