Riding profile

Marne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Marne

The question

Marne — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to LR and allies?

Editorial read

Marne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Xavier ALBERTINI

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 38.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.7%
  • Left (NFP) 26.2%
  • RN and allies 3.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies
HereMarne — 1ère circonscription 38.3%28.7%26.2%3.0%
Provincial averageMarne 11.4% +26.9 28.9% −0.1 18.2% +8.0 37.3% −34.3
National averageFrance 12.2% +26.1 20.6% +8.2 29.5% −3.3 36.0% −32.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adrien MEXIS LR and allies 17,697 37.3
Xavier ALBERTINI Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,058 33.8
Evelyne BOURGOIN Left (NFP) 12,835 27.1
Vincent VARLET Far left 856 1.8
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next