Riding profile

Ardennes — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Ardennes

The question

Ardennes — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Ardennes — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Ardennes, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 51% vote share, against 21% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Flavien TERMET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 50.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.2%
  • Left (NFP) 16.8%
  • LR and allies 5.1%
  • Others 4.2%
  • Greens 1.5%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereArdennes — 1ère circonscription 50.5%21.2%16.8%5.1%
Provincial averageArdennes 46.1% +4.5 12.8% +8.4 14.8% +1.9 26.3% −21.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +14.6 20.6% +0.6 29.5% −12.7 12.2% −7.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+29.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Flavien TERMET Elected RN and allies 17,817 38.3 —
Lionel VUIBERT Centre (Ensemble) 12,157 26.2 —
Damien LEROUGE Left (NFP) 8,127 17.5 —
Christian CHARVET RN and allies 4,257 9.2 —
Sabine MISSET LR and allies 1,782 3.8 —
Arnaud RENNESSON Others 998 2.1 —
Sonia D'ORGEVILLE Greens 956 2.1 —
Nadia OCTAVE Far left 386 0.8 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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