Riding profile
Ardennes — 3ème circonscription
The question
Ardennes — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Ardennes — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ardennes, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 44% vote share, against 42% for the LR right, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jean-Luc WARSMANN
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 74%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.5
- P(close race)
- 51%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereArdennes — 3ème circonscription | 44.0% | 42.5% | 10.4% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageArdennes | 46.1% −2.1 | 26.3% +16.2 | 14.8% −4.4 | 2.7% −0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +8.0 | 12.2% +30.2 | 29.5% −19.1 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc WARSMANN Elected | LR and allies | 15,362 | 43.6 | — |
| Isabelle ROGER | RN and allies | 15,296 | 43.4 | — |
| Sophie PERRIN | Left (NFP) | 4,139 | 11.7 | — |
| Laure AUGIER | Far left | 466 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Ardennes — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Ardennes — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meuse — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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