Riding profile
Marne — 4ème circonscription
The question
Marne — 4ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Marne — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lise MAGNIER
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.7
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarne — 4ème circonscription | 45.5% | 25.9% | 17.1% | 7.8% |
| Provincial averageMarne | 37.3% +8.2 | 28.9% −3.0 | 18.2% −1.0 | 11.4% −3.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +9.6 | 20.6% +5.3 | 29.5% −12.3 | 12.2% −4.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achille BISIAUX | RN and allies | 21,045 | 42.8 | — |
| Lise MAGNIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,245 | 31.0 | — |
| Maxence LAURENT | Left (NFP) | 8,845 | 18.0 | — |
| Gabriel MICHEL | LR and allies | 3,249 | 6.6 | — |
| Laurent GOSSEAU | Far left | 690 | 1.4 | — |
| Marty DUCANDA | Others | 134 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Marne — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Ardennes — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Ardennes — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Marne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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