Riding profile
Ardennes — 2ème circonscription
The question
Ardennes — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Ardennes — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ardennes, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 31% for the LR right, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Pierre CORDIER
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 82%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.4
- P(close race)
- 37%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereArdennes — 2ème circonscription | 43.6% | 31.2% | 17.3% | 4.4% |
| Provincial averageArdennes | 46.1% −2.4 | 26.3% +5.0 | 14.8% +2.4 | 12.8% −8.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +7.7 | 12.2% +19.0 | 29.5% −12.2 | 20.6% −16.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pauline MESTER | RN and allies | 15,097 | 40.8 | — |
| Pierre CORDIER Elected | LR and allies | 11,147 | 30.1 | — |
| Gilles LOYEZ | Left (NFP) | 6,688 | 18.1 | — |
| Philippe MATHOT | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,467 | 9.4 | — |
| Mink TAKAWE | Far left | 308 | 0.8 | — |
| Patrick BENYOUCEF | Far left | 264 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Ardennes — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Ardennes — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Nord — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meuse — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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