Riding profile

Ardennes — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ardennes

The question

Ardennes — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Ardennes — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ardennes, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 31% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pierre CORDIER

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
82%
Mean margin (pts)
12.4
P(close race)
37%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.6%
  • LR and allies 31.2%
  • Left (NFP) 17.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 4.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereArdennes — 2ème circonscription 43.6%31.2%17.3%4.4%
Provincial averageArdennes 46.1% −2.4 26.3% +5.0 14.8% +2.4 12.8% −8.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.7 12.2% +19.0 29.5% −12.2 20.6% −16.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pauline MESTER RN and allies 15,097 40.8
Pierre CORDIER Elected LR and allies 11,147 30.1
Gilles LOYEZ Left (NFP) 6,688 18.1
Philippe MATHOT Centre (Ensemble) 3,467 9.4
Mink TAKAWE Far left 308 0.8
Patrick BENYOUCEF Far left 264 0.7
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next