Riding profile

Aube — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Aube

The question

Aube — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Aube — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aube, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Angélique RANC

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.4%
  • Left (NFP) 23.6%
  • LR and allies 13.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.8%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereAube — 3ème circonscription 46.4%23.6%13.6%11.8%
Provincial averageAube 50.2% −3.8 17.6% +6.0 18.5% −4.9 10.0% +1.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.4 29.5% −5.8 12.2% +1.4 20.6% −8.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Angélique RANC Elected RN and allies 18,084 43.3 —
Olivier GIRARDIN Left (NFP) 10,178 24.4 —
Luc SCHERRER Centre (Ensemble) 6,994 16.8 —
Didier LEPRINCE LR and allies 3,654 8.8 —
Olivier RICHARD LR and allies 1,502 3.6 —
Nelly COLLOT-TOUZÉ Greens 970 2.3 —
Pascal ANDRIEUX Far left 349 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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