Riding profile

Oise — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Oise

The question

Oise — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Oise — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 21% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frédéric Pierre VOS

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.7%
  • Left (NFP) 21.2%
  • LR and allies 18.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereOise — 5ème circonscription 45.7%21.2%18.8%10.2%
Provincial averageOise 47.9% −2.2 21.0% +0.2 18.6% +0.3 11.9% −1.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +9.8 29.5% −8.3 12.2% +6.6 20.6% −10.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frédéric Pierre VOS Elected RN and allies 20,070 42.1 —
Bertrand BRASSENS Left (NFP) 10,491 22.0 —
Pierre VATIN LR and allies 8,427 17.7 —
Etienne DIOT Centre (Ensemble) 7,232 15.2 —
Véronique ROGEZ Sovereignists 509 1.1 —
Hélène BECHERINI Far left 503 1.1 —
Jean-Paul BOUCHER RN and allies 379 0.8 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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