Riding profile

Oise — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Oise

The question

Oise — 4ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Oise — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eric WOERTH

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
16.1
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.4%
  • Left (NFP) 16.3%
  • LR and allies 7.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.6%
  • Sovereignists 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereOise — 4ème circonscription 44.5%28.4%16.3%7.6%
Provincial averageOise 47.9% −3.4 11.9% +16.5 21.0% −4.6 18.6% −11.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.5 20.6% +7.8 29.5% −13.2 12.2% −4.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu GRIMPRET RN and allies 25,093 40.2 —
Eric WOERTH Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,646 29.9 —
Mohamed ASSAMTI Left (NFP) 10,644 17.1 —
Jean LEFEVRE LR and allies 3,942 6.3 —
Sophie REYNAL Centre (Ensemble) 2,157 3.5 —
Jean-Claude CASAS RN and allies 772 1.2 —
Caroline DASINI Far left 422 0.7 —
Noël NGABISSIO Greens 422 0.7 —
Augusto FERNANDES Sovereignists 280 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next