Riding profile

Somme — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Somme

The question

Somme — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Somme — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Somme, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 60% vote share, against 14% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yaël MENACHE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 60.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.5%
  • Left (NFP) 12.3%
  • LR and allies 9.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereSomme — 5ème circonscription 60.0%14.5%12.3%9.4%
Provincial averageSomme 47.9% +12.1 15.5% −1.1 20.9% −8.5 12.4% −3.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +24.0 20.6% −6.1 29.5% −17.1 12.2% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+45.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yaël MENACHE Elected RN and allies 29,281 56.0
Loïc FOLLEAT Centre (Ensemble) 10,196 19.5
Alice BERGER Left (NFP) 6,877 13.2
Séverine MORDACQ LR and allies 4,280 8.2
Hélène LAUNAY Far left 1,000 1.9
Béatrice GUILBERT RN and allies 672 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next