Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Agnès PANNIER-RUNACHER

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
72%
Mean margin (pts)
11.0
P(close race)
56%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 41.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 30.5%
  • Left (NFP) 19.4%
  • LR and allies 4.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.0%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HerePas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription 41.5%30.5%19.4%4.9%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% −11.6 13.9% +16.6 20.8% −1.5 9.6% −4.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +5.6 20.6% +9.9 29.5% −10.1 12.2% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alban HEUSÈLE RN and allies 22,239 37.3 —
Agnès PANNIER-RUNACHER Elected Centre (Ensemble) 12,838 21.5 —
Alexandre COUSIN Left (NFP) 11,991 20.1 —
Nicolas DESFACHELLE Centre (Ensemble) 8,303 13.9 —
Mabrouka DHIFALLAH LR and allies 2,180 3.7 —
Bruno LADSOUS Greens 946 1.6 —
Nathalie LEBLANC RN and allies 697 1.2 —
Béatrice BOUFFART Far left 409 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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