Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 57% vote share, against 18% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emmanuel BLAIRY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.8%
  • Left (NFP) 18.1%
  • LR and allies 13.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 8.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HerePas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription 56.8%18.1%13.8%8.4%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% +3.6 20.8% −2.7 9.6% +4.1 13.9% −5.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.8 29.5% −11.4 12.2% +1.5 20.6% −12.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+38.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emmanuel BLAIRY Elected RN and allies 38,755 54.1 —
Philippe BOLET Centre (Ensemble) 9,613 13.4 —
Marie BERNARD LR and allies 9,026 12.6 —
Jean-Michel SAUVAGE Left (NFP) 6,957 9.7 —
Jean-Jacques COTTEL Left (NFP) 6,637 9.3 —
Marie BERTHOUD Far left 680 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next