Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bruno CLAVET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.3%
  • Left (NFP) 31.4%
  • LR and allies 4.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 4.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HerePas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription 56.3%31.4%4.5%4.2%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% +3.1 20.8% +10.5 9.6% −5.1 13.9% −9.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.3 29.5% +1.9 12.2% −7.7 20.6% −16.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bruno CLAVET Elected RN and allies 25,200 52.4 —
Jean-Marc TELLIER Left (NFP) 15,530 32.3 —
François QUESTE Centre (Ensemble) 4,427 9.2 —
Jacques DUQUENNE LR and allies 1,586 3.3 —
Michel DARRAS Far left 800 1.7 —
Michèle LEJEUNE RN and allies 546 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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