Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 63% vote share, against 18% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Thierry FRAPPÉ

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 63.3%
  • Left (NFP) 17.9%
  • LR and allies 11.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HerePas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription 63.3%17.9%11.7%3.5%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% +10.1 20.8% −2.9 9.6% +2.1 13.9% −10.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +27.3 29.5% −11.5 12.2% −0.5 20.6% −17.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+45.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thierry FRAPPÉ Elected RN and allies 32,530 60.6 —
Emmanuelle LEVEUGLE Left (NFP) 10,085 18.8 —
Thomas BUTTIN LR and allies 5,635 10.5 —
Léo LUNIEWSKI Centre (Ensemble) 4,571 8.5 —
Éric ROBASZKIEWICZ Far left 851 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next