Riding profile
Nord — 15ème circonscription
The question
Nord — 15ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Nord — 15ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 34% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jean-Pierre BATAILLE
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.9
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNord — 15ème circonscription | 46.5% | 33.5% | 16.6% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0% +4.5 | 12.7% +20.8 | 28.2% −11.6 | 3.6% −1.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +10.5 | 12.2% +21.3 | 29.5% −12.9 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierrick BERTELOOT | RN and allies | 29,894 | 46.0 | — |
| Jean-Pierre BATAILLE Elected | LR and allies | 22,206 | 34.1 | — |
| Émilie DUCOURANT | Left (NFP) | 11,853 | 18.2 | — |
| Benjamin DUBIEZ | Far left | 1,078 | 1.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 14ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 11ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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