Riding profile
Nord — 14ème circonscription
The question
Nord — 14ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Nord — 14ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 36% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Paul CHRISTOPHE
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.8
- P(close race)
- 5%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNord — 14ème circonscription | 46.8% | 36.0% | 12.2% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0% +4.8 | 12.7% +23.3 | 28.2% −15.9 | 3.6% −1.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +10.9 | 12.2% +23.8 | 29.5% −17.3 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Baptiste GARDES | RN and allies | 30,194 | 46.4 | — |
| Paul CHRISTOPHE Elected | LR and allies | 23,928 | 36.7 | — |
| Philippine HEYMAN | Left (NFP) | 8,876 | 13.6 | — |
| Sandrine DESRAYAUD | Far left | 1,091 | 1.7 | — |
| Anne-Lise PERCHE | Sovereignists | 1,033 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nord — 13ème circonscriptionOthers Toss-upOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 15ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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