Riding profile

Nord — 14ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 14ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Nord — 14ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 36% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Paul CHRISTOPHE

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.8%
  • LR and allies 36.0%
  • Left (NFP) 12.2%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Sovereignists 1.6%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereNord — 14ème circonscription 46.8%36.0%12.2%1.9%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% +4.8 12.7% +23.3 28.2% −15.9 3.6% −1.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.9 12.2% +23.8 29.5% −17.3 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Baptiste GARDES RN and allies 30,194 46.4
Paul CHRISTOPHE Elected LR and allies 23,928 36.7
Philippine HEYMAN Left (NFP) 8,876 13.6
Sandrine DESRAYAUD Far left 1,091 1.7
Anne-Lise PERCHE Sovereignists 1,033 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next