Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 33% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marc DE FLEURIAN

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.9
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.1%
  • LR and allies 33.2%
  • Left (NFP) 14.7%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HerePas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscription 49.1%33.2%14.7%1.9%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% −4.1 9.6% +23.5 20.8% −6.1 2.2% −0.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.1 12.2% +20.9 29.5% −14.8 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marc DE FLEURIAN Elected RN and allies 26,995 47.9 —
Pierre-Henri DUMONT LR and allies 19,036 33.8 —
Jean-Pierre MOUSSALLY Left (NFP) 9,184 16.3 —
Olivier CARRAUD Far left 701 1.2 —
Jérôme JUDEK RN and allies 492 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
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