Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Antoine GOLLIOT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.9%
  • Left (NFP) 28.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.8%
  • LR and allies 5.9%
  • Far left 2.2%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HerePas-de-Calais — 5ème circonscription 45.9%28.1%15.8%5.9%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% −7.2 20.8% +7.2 13.9% +1.9 9.6% −3.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.0 29.5% −1.4 20.6% −4.7 12.2% −6.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Antoine GOLLIOT Elected RN and allies 23,974 43.1 —
Olivier BARBARIN Left (NFP) 16,095 29.0 —
Jean-Pierre PONT Centre (Ensemble) 11,601 20.9 —
Jean-Luc VIUDES LR and allies 2,596 4.7 —
Pierre LANGLET Far left 1,298 2.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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