Riding profile

Somme — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Somme

The question

Somme — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Somme — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Somme, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 29% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matthias RENAULT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 52.3%
  • LR and allies 28.8%
  • Left (NFP) 14.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 1.3%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereSomme — 3ème circonscription 52.3%28.8%14.2%2.0%
Provincial averageSomme 47.9% +4.5 12.4% +16.4 20.9% −6.7 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +16.3 12.2% +16.6 29.5% −15.3 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+23.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matthias RENAULT Elected RN and allies 27,277 48.9 —
Emmanuel MAQUET LR and allies 15,449 27.7 —
Léon DEFFONTAINES Left (NFP) 8,385 15.0 —
Bruno MARIAGE Centre (Ensemble) 3,490 6.3 —
Michel VALET Far left 589 1.1 —
Sylvie BRUHAT RN and allies 370 0.7 —
Noë BOXOËN Sovereignists 217 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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