Riding profile
Oise — 2ème circonscription
The question
Oise — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Oise — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 21% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Philippe BALLARD
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 34.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOise — 2ème circonscription | 55.6% | 21.5% | 17.0% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOise | 47.9% +7.7 | 18.6% +2.9 | 21.0% −4.0 | 1.9% +1.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +19.6 | 12.2% +9.3 | 29.5% −12.5 | 2.1% +0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe BALLARD Elected | RN and allies | 30,823 | 53.2 | — |
| Ludovic CASTANIÉ | LR and allies | 12,339 | 21.3 | — |
| Marianne SECK | Left (NFP) | 10,772 | 18.6 | — |
| Mohamed EL AIYATE | Greens | 2,144 | 3.7 | — |
| Pierre DELARBOULAS | RN and allies | 1,225 | 2.1 | — |
| Renée POTCHTOVIK | Far left | 630 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Val-d'Oise — 10ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Yvelines — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Yvelines — 8ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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