Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anne SICARD

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 93%
Mean margin (pts): 7.6
P(close race): 15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 37.5%
Left (NFP) 29.9%
Centre (Ensemble) 20.4%
LR and allies 7.4%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.4%
Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereVal-d'Oise — 1ère circonscription	37.5%	29.9%	20.4%	7.4%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise	29.6% +7.9	39.7% −9.9	17.3% +3.1	10.4% −3.0
National averageFrance	36.0% +1.5	29.5% +0.4	20.6% −0.2	12.2% −4.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+7.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Anne SICARD Elected	RN and allies	18,823	33.6	—
Maximillien JULES-ARTHUR	Left (NFP)	17,230	30.8	—
Émilie CHANDLER	Centre (Ensemble)	14,244	25.5	—
Michel RICHARD	LR and allies	3,468	6.2	—
Barbara GÉHAN	Far left	826	1.5	—
Lionel LESSAINT	Sovereignists	755	1.4	—
Laure DE GARILS	RN and allies	574	1.0	—
Sami LAH	Others	21	0.0	—
Ethel SOUSSI	Far left	0	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next