Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 26% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aurélien TACHÉ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 42.1%
  • RN and allies 25.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.1%
  • LR and allies 13.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.2%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-d'Oise — 10ème circonscription 42.1%25.7%14.1%13.8%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise 39.7% +2.4 29.6% −3.9 17.3% −3.1 10.4% +3.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +12.7 36.0% −10.3 20.6% −6.5 12.2% +1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aurélien TACHÉ Elected Left (NFP) 18,306 43.1 —
Lisbeth MACÉ RN and allies 9,667 22.8 —
Sonia KRIMI Centre (Ensemble) 8,129 19.1 —
Edwina ÉTORÉ-MANIKA LR and allies 4,249 10.0 —
Albert SAINT-JEAN LR and allies 1,107 2.6 —
Christophe FLAUX Far left 489 1.1 —
Souade DE LA FAYE Sovereignists 488 1.1 —
Jean CAILLOT Far left 7 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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