Riding profile

Yvelines — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yvelines

The question

Yvelines — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Yvelines — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yvelines, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 40% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yaël BRAUN-PIVET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 40.2%
  • Left (NFP) 26.6%
  • LR and allies 24.0%
  • RN and allies 6.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies RN and allies
HereYvelines — 5ème circonscription 40.2%26.6%24.0%6.4%
Provincial averageYvelines 28.3% +11.9 29.5% −2.9 13.4% +10.6 26.9% −20.4
National averageFrance 20.6% +19.6 29.5% −2.9 12.2% +11.8 36.0% −29.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yaël BRAUN-PIVET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,874 42.8 —
Yassine BENYETTOU Left (NFP) 14,600 27.3 —
Jacques MYARD LR and allies 12,241 22.9 —
Emilienne GUILLE RN and allies 1,826 3.4 —
Nathalie LEPAGE Centre (Ensemble) 942 1.8 —
Alain LÉPICIER Far left 454 0.8 —
Ingrid LAROSE Centre (Ensemble) 430 0.8 —
Serilo LOOKY Left (NFP) 84 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next