Riding profile

Yvelines — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yvelines

The question

Yvelines — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Yvelines — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yvelines, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie LEBEC

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 9.8
P(close race): 1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Centre (Ensemble) 36.1%
Left (NFP) 26.3%
RN and allies 24.3%
LR and allies 10.5%
Others 2.0%
Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies
HereYvelines — 4ème circonscription	36.1%	26.3%	24.3%	10.5%
Provincial averageYvelines	28.3% +7.8	29.5% −3.2	26.9% −2.5	13.4% −2.9
National averageFrance	20.6% +15.5	29.5% −3.2	36.0% −11.6	12.2% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Centre (Ensemble)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+9.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Marie LEBEC Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	23,932	41.2	—
Céline BOURDON	Left (NFP)	15,787	27.2	—
Jean-François MOURTOUX	RN and allies	11,599	20.0	—
Anne-Sophie HO MASSAT	LR and allies	5,383	9.3	—
Manon BARDY	RN and allies	835	1.4	—
Franck MAUREL	Far left	489	0.8	—
James POGGIA	Others	2	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next