Riding profile

Yvelines — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yvelines

The question

Yvelines — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Yvelines — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yvelines, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 44% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Benjamin LUCAS

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.9%
  • RN and allies 33.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.2%
  • LR and allies 6.9%
  • Others 5.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereYvelines — 8ème circonscription 43.9%33.8%9.2%6.9%
Provincial averageYvelines 29.5% +14.4 26.9% +7.0 28.3% −19.2 13.4% −6.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +14.4 36.0% −2.1 20.6% −11.4 12.2% −5.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Benjamin LUCAS Elected Left (NFP) 20,416 44.9 —
Cyril NAUTH RN and allies 14,076 31.0 —
Alexis COSTA Centre (Ensemble) 6,436 14.2 —
Stephan CHAMPAGNE LR and allies 2,592 5.7 —
Sabah EL ASRI Others 1,208 2.7 —
Thierry GONNOT Far left 526 1.2 —
Nicolas MANGANI Others 187 0.4 —
Hugues BOVAERE RN and allies 8 0.0 —
Léon CHEVALIER Others 3 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next