Riding profile

Yvelines — 12ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yvelines

The question

Yvelines — 12ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Yvelines — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yvelines, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 36% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Karl OLIVE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Competitive

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 35.6%
  • Left (NFP) 30.1%
  • RN and allies 29.2%
  • Others 2.8%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies Others
HereYvelines — 12ème circonscription 35.6%30.1%29.2%2.8%
Provincial averageYvelines 28.3% +7.3 29.5% +0.6 26.9% +2.4 2.6% +0.2
National averageFrance 20.6% +15.0 29.5% +0.7 36.0% −6.7 3.9% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karl OLIVE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 20,610 40.8 —
Christophe MASSIAUX Left (NFP) 15,333 30.3 —
Jean-Louis METTELET RN and allies 12,585 24.9 —
Bruno JAY RN and allies 743 1.5 —
Jean-Pierre MERCIER Far left 537 1.1 —
Patrick SCIELLER Others 400 0.8 —
Diabé KAMARA Left (NFP) 369 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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