Riding profile

Yvelines — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yvelines

The question

Yvelines — 11ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to Left (NFP)?

Editorial read

Yvelines — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yvelines, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 40% vote share, against 29% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Laurent MAZAURY

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
11.5
P(close race)
13%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 40.4%
  • LR and allies 28.9%
  • RN and allies 25.4%
  • Others 4.0%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) LR and allies RN and allies Others
HereYvelines — 11ème circonscription 40.4%28.9%25.4%4.0%
Provincial averageYvelines 29.5% +10.9 13.4% +15.5 26.9% −1.5 2.6% +1.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +10.9 12.2% +16.7 36.0% −10.6 3.9% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
William MARTINET Left (NFP) 20,395 43.4 —
Laurent MAZAURY Elected LR and allies 13,752 29.3 —
Victoria DOUCET RN and allies 10,243 21.8 —
Sarah NICOS Others 1,048 2.2 —
Nathalie MACHUCA RN and allies 900 1.9 —
Patrick PLANQUE Far left 507 1.1 —
Boris LUTZ Sovereignists 166 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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