Riding profile

Yvelines — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yvelines

The question

Yvelines — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Yvelines — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yvelines, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the RN and its allies, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Jean-Noël BARROT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Competitive

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
16%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.9%
  • RN and allies 26.1%
  • Left (NFP) 25.4%
  • LR and allies 15.7%
  • Others 2.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereYvelines — 2ème circonscription 29.9%26.1%25.4%15.7%
Provincial averageYvelines 28.3% +1.6 26.9% −0.8 29.5% −4.1 13.4% +2.3
National averageFrance 20.6% +9.3 36.0% −9.9 29.5% −4.1 12.2% +3.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Noël BARROT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,500 35.0 —
Maïté CARRIVE-BÉDOUANI Left (NFP) 16,893 26.3 —
Gaetan BRAULT RN and allies 14,013 21.8 —
Pascal THEVENOT LR and allies 9,327 14.5 —
Philippe LOIRE RN and allies 893 1.4 —
Marielle SAULNIER Far left 486 0.8 —
Bertrand HUGON Others 153 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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