Riding profile

Essonne — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Essonne — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 36% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Marie-Pierre RIXAIN

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
35%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.6%
  • Left (NFP) 29.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.8%
  • Others 3.3%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereEssonne — 4ème circonscription 35.6%29.9%28.8%3.3%
Provincial averageEssonne 28.2% +7.4 37.4% −7.5 22.7% +6.0 5.8% −2.4
National averageFrance 36.0% −0.4 29.5% +0.4 20.6% +8.2 3.9% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Pierre RIXAIN Elected Centre (Ensemble) 23,108 33.9 —
Jérôme CARBRIAND RN and allies 21,144 31.0 —
Amadou DEME Left (NFP) 21,010 30.8 —
Tony GOMES RN and allies 1,177 1.7 —
Michèle POHYER Far left 790 1.2 —
Jean-François RICOIS Others 500 0.7 —
Yves MARTY Others 419 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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