Riding profile

Essonne — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Essonne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Steevy GUSTAVE

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
58%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
77%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.2%
  • Left (NFP) 30.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.8%
  • Others 5.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereEssonne — 3ème circonscription 37.2%30.0%24.8%5.7%
Provincial averageEssonne 28.2% +9.0 37.4% −7.4 22.7% +2.1 5.8%
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.2 29.5% +0.5 20.6% +4.2 3.9% +1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stefan MILOSEVIC RN and allies 22,290 33.0
Steevy GUSTAVE Elected Left (NFP) 20,874 30.9
Alexis IZARD Centre (Ensemble) 20,189 29.9
Catherine BOMPARD Others 2,453 3.6
Denis TRANIER RN and allies 925 1.4
Joëlle LOPÈS-VENOT Far left 713 1.1
Salvador RIBEIRO Others 82 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
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