Riding profile

Essonne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Essonne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nathalie DA CONCEICAO CARVALHO

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 19.3
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 45.1%
Left (NFP) 25.8%
Centre (Ensemble) 17.1%
LR and allies 4.6%
Greens 4.6%
Others 2.0%
Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereEssonne — 2ème circonscription	45.1%	25.8%	17.1%	4.6%
Provincial averageEssonne	28.2% +16.8	37.4% −11.6	22.7% −5.6	7.3% −2.7
National averageFrance	36.0% +9.1	29.5% −3.7	20.6% −3.4	12.2% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+19.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Nathalie DA CONCEICAO CARVALHO Elected	RN and allies	24,608	40.3	—
Mathieu HILLAIRE	Left (NFP)	16,207	26.5	—
Naïma SIFER	Centre (Ensemble)	13,490	22.1	—
Pierre MAYEUR	LR and allies	2,054	3.4	—
Alexandre LIENHARD	Greens	1,754	2.9	—
Jacques BORIE	Greens	1,389	2.3	—
Carla TARCY	RN and allies	1,045	1.7	—
Mathilde PHAN HIEU	Far left	517	0.8	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next