Riding profile

Essonne — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Essonne

The question

Essonne — 5ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to Left (NFP)?

Editorial read

Essonne — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Essonne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Paul MIDY

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
10.4
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 37.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.5%
  • RN and allies 19.6%
  • LR and allies 11.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.2%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereEssonne — 5ème circonscription 37.9%27.5%19.6%11.2%
Provincial averageEssonne 37.4% +0.5 22.7% +4.8 28.2% −8.7 7.3% +3.9
National averageFrance 29.5% +8.5 20.6% +7.0 36.0% −16.4 12.2% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pierre LARROUTUROU Left (NFP) 19,107 37.9 —
Paul MIDY Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,362 32.5 —
Laetitia HORVELIN RN and allies 7,692 15.3 —
François Guy TRÉBULLE LR and allies 4,998 9.9 —
Marianne BILLOIR Greens 898 1.8 —
Wendy LONCHAMPT RN and allies 627 1.2 —
Benoît ODILLE Left (NFP) 380 0.8 —
Didier PAXION Far left 317 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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