Riding profile

Yvelines — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yvelines

The question

Yvelines — 10ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Yvelines — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yvelines, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Aurore BERGÉ

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
75%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 32.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.6%
  • Left (NFP) 25.1%
  • LR and allies 9.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.1%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereYvelines — 10ème circonscription 32.6%28.6%25.1%9.9%
Provincial averageYvelines 26.9% +5.7 28.3% +0.3 29.5% −4.5 13.4% −3.4
National averageFrance 36.0% −3.4 20.6% +8.1 29.5% −4.4 12.2% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aurore BERGÉ Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,367 33.6 —
Thomas DU CHALARD RN and allies 18,795 28.2 —
Cédric BRIOLAIS Left (NFP) 14,918 22.4 —
Gaël BARBOTIN LR and allies 5,797 8.7 —
Julien GAUTRELET Left (NFP) 2,260 3.4 —
Ethel FOURNIER-CAMPION Greens 1,141 1.7 —
Olivier GOUSSEAU RN and allies 894 1.3 —
Hélène JANISSET Far left 421 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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